The European Parliament's 10th term is entering its second full year with a chamber more fragmented than at any point since 2004. With a parliamentary fragmentation index of 6.14 โ the highest recorded since EP activity tracking began โ motions and resolutions increasingly require multi-group coalitions that cut across traditional left-right divides. The rightward shift evident in the 2024 elections continues to reshape which motions gain traction and which stall in committee.
European Parliament data for early 2026 shows the legislative machinery is accelerating, with projections pointing to 85 legislative acts and 530 roll-call votes across the year โ both increases over 2025 levels. The 720 MEPs spread across nine political formations face a packed agenda dominated by defence and security motions in the wake of Europe's evolving geopolitical environment, migration policy reforms, and a contested industrial strategy package. The dynamics of how motions are tabled, amended, and voted reveal which political alliances are holding โ and where cracks are forming.
Recent Voting Records
Defence & Security Motions
Defence motions have emerged as the dominant legislative priority for EP10, reflecting the geopolitical realities facing Europe. The EPP (188 seats, 26.1%) has been the primary driver of defence-related resolutions, consistently securing support from ECR (78 seats, 10.8%) and often gaining backing from S&D (136 seats, 18.9%) on broad security frameworks. The 2025 session saw the adoption of the annual Common Security and Defence Policy report, with modifications to Russian customs duties providing a concrete legislative response to ongoing tensions.
Roll-call vote data reveals that defence motions consistently achieve among the highest approval margins, with the core EPP-S&D-Renew coalition providing comfortable majorities. In 2025, 520 roll-call votes were recorded โ the Parliament maintained a strong baseline of voting activity even as political fragmentation reached record levels.
Migration & Asylum Motions
Migration remains the most politically divisive policy domain for motions. The PfE group (86 seats, 11.9%) and ESN (25 seats, 3.5%) table the most restrictive migration motions, while The Left (46 seats, 6.4%) and Greens/EFA (53 seats, 7.4%) propose humanitarian-oriented resolutions. This polarisation means migration motions frequently split along clear ideological lines, requiring careful coalition management by centrist groups to pass.
The fragmentation of the centre has complicated traditional EPP-S&D grand coalition voting on migration. Since 2019, no two-party majority has been mathematically possible, pushing the EPP to selectively partner with either ECR or Renew depending on the specific motion. This pattern has intensified in EP10.
Economic Governance & Digital Regulation
The digital agenda continues to generate significant legislative output. EP9's landmark achievements โ the Digital Services Act, Digital Markets Act, and AI Act โ have shifted EP10's focus toward implementation motions, VAT modernisation for the digital economy, and strengthened tax cooperation frameworks. The 2025 session adopted key texts on VAT rules for the digital age and enhanced administrative cooperation in taxation between Member States.
Renew Europe (77 seats, 10.7%) has positioned itself as the pivotal swing group on economic motions, alternately aligning with EPP on market-oriented resolutions and with S&D on consumer protection measures. This strategic positioning gives Renew outsized influence relative to its seat share.
Party Cohesion Analysis
Analysis of voting patterns across EP10's first full operational year reveals significant variations in internal group discipline, which directly impacts how motions are adopted:
EPP โ European People's Party (188 seats, 26.1%)
Cohesion: High โ The EPP maintains the tightest voting discipline among large groups, with consistent bloc voting on defence, economic governance, and enlargement motions. Internal divergence surfaces primarily on environmental regulation and agricultural subsidy reforms.
Participation: Above average โ EPP MEPs show consistently high attendance at plenary roll-call votes, reflecting effective whipping mechanisms.
S&D โ Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (136 seats, 18.9%)
Cohesion: Moderate-to-high โ Strongest on social policy and labour rights motions. Some fragmentation observed on migration and trade policy, where national party positions can override group line.
Participation: Above average โ Reliable voting attendance, particularly on social affairs and employment policy motions.
Renew Europe (77 seats, 10.7%)
Cohesion: Moderate โ The most ideologically diverse centrist group shows flexibility in coalition-building. Cohesion is highest on digital economy and civil liberties motions but drops on agricultural and industrial policy.
Participation: Average โ Some variation in attendance linked to the group's broad geographic spread.
ECR โ European Conservatives and Reformists (78 seats, 10.8%)
Cohesion: Moderate โ Strongest alignment on sovereignty-related and migration motions. The group's heterogeneous national composition (Polish PiS, Italian FdI successors, others) creates occasional divergence on economic policy.
Participation: Average โ Variable attendance patterns across the group.
PfE โ Patriots for Europe (86 seats, 11.9%)
Cohesion: High on anti-establishment motions โ The relatively new group demonstrates strong unity on EU institutional reform, migration restriction, and sovereignty motions. Less cohesion observed on economic and trade policy where national interests diverge.
Participation: Below average โ Lower plenary attendance compared to established groups.
Greens/EFA (53 seats, 7.4%)
Cohesion: High โ Among the most cohesive groups, with strong bloc voting on environmental, climate, and digital rights motions. Consistent opposition to migration restriction motions.
Participation: High โ Excellent voting attendance despite reduced seat count compared to EP9.
The Left โ GUE/NGL (46 seats, 6.4%)
Cohesion: Moderate โ United on social justice and anti-austerity motions. Some internal divergence on foreign policy resolutions, particularly regarding geopolitical alignments.
Participation: Average โ Consistent attendance on priority policy areas.
ESN โ Europe of Sovereign Nations (25 seats, 3.5%)
Cohesion: High โ As the smallest formal group, ESN votes as a tight bloc on sovereignty and anti-integration motions. The group's limited size restricts its amendment influence but provides a reliable voting block for other right-wing groups.
Participation: Below average โ The group's marginal size and recent formation affect institutional engagement.
Detected Voting Anomalies
The record-high parliamentary fragmentation index of 6.14 in 2025 has produced notable shifts in voting behaviour that deviate from established patterns:
EPP-ECR Convergence on Defence
The EPP and ECR have shown increasing voting alignment on defence and security motions, with convergence rates rising significantly since the start of EP10. This cross-bloc partnership, which would have been exceptional in EP8, has become a structural feature of EP10's coalition dynamics, driven by shared threat assessments regarding European security.
Severity: MEDIUM โ represents a shift in traditional alliance patterns
S&D-Greens Divergence on Industrial Policy
Traditionally allied on most progressive policy motions, S&D and Greens/EFA have shown unexpected voting divergence on industrial strategy resolutions. S&D's evolving position toward supporting strategic industrial autonomy โ including relaxed state aid rules โ has created friction with the Greens' stricter sustainability requirements.
Severity: MEDIUM โ potential realignment of progressive bloc
Grand Coalition Arithmetic Collapse
For the first time in European Parliament history, the traditional EPP-S&D grand coalition (324 seats combined) cannot form a majority without at least one additional group. With 720 MEPs requiring 361 for a majority, the EPP-S&D duo falls short by 37 seats. This structural deficit, evident since EP9 but deepened in EP10, means every major motion requires multi-group negotiation. The effective number of parties in Parliament has risen steadily from 4.12 in 2004 to 6.14 in 2025.
Severity: HIGH โ structural shift in legislative coalition mathematics
Recent Parliamentary Questions
Parliamentary questions serve as a key oversight mechanism, with 4,200 questions filed in 2025 and projections of 4,300 for 2026. The upward trend in question volume โ from 4,215 in 2004 to current levels โ reflects increasing MEP engagement in Commission oversight. Key policy areas generating the most motions-related questions include:
Defence spending coordination: Multiple written questions from EPP and ECR MEPs pressing the Commission on timelines for defence procurement harmonisation and the proposed European defence fund allocation.
Migration implementation monitoring: S&D and Renew MEPs questioning the Commission on implementation of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, particularly regarding burden-sharing mechanisms between Member States.
Digital economy regulation: Cross-party questions on enforcement of the AI Act, Digital Services Act implementation timelines, and proposed updates to the digital taxation framework.
Climate policy implementation: Greens/EFA and The Left MEPs questioning Commission progress on Green Deal implementation targets, particularly regarding the 2030 emissions reduction pathway.
Why This Matters
The European Parliament's motion and resolution activity in early 2026 reveals a legislature at a pivotal juncture. The unprecedented fragmentation index of 6.14 means that no single political bloc can drive the legislative agenda alone. Every motion, from human rights resolutions to defence spending frameworks, requires carefully assembled coalitions that often bridge ideological divides.
For European citizens, this fragmentation has a dual effect. On one hand, it ensures broader representation of diverse political perspectives in every legislative outcome. On the other, it risks legislative gridlock on contentious issues where no cross-group consensus can be found โ particularly on migration and energy policy. The Parliament's ability to maintain legislative productivity at projected 2026 levels (85 acts, 120 resolutions) despite record fragmentation will be a key test of EP10's institutional resilience.
The rightward shift observed in the 2024 elections continues to reshape which motions advance. Defence and security resolutions enjoy broad multi-group support, while social and environmental motions face stronger headwinds. Observers should watch the EPP's coalition choices closely: whether it partners predominantly with ECR on the right or maintains bridges to S&D and Renew will determine the legislative character of the remainder of EP10.
Political Alignment
The current political landscape of the European Parliament reflects a nine-group structure with no dominant majority bloc:
- EPP (European People's Party) โ 188 seats (26.1%) โ Centre-right anchor, leads on defence and economic motions
- S&D (Socialists & Democrats) โ 136 seats (18.9%) โ Progressive bloc, leads on social policy motions
- PfE (Patriots for Europe) โ 86 seats (11.9%) โ Right-wing populist, strong on sovereignty motions
- ECR (Conservatives & Reformists) โ 78 seats (10.8%) โ Conservative, key EPP partner on security
- Renew Europe โ 77 seats (10.7%) โ Liberal centrist, pivotal swing group
- Greens/EFA โ 53 seats (7.4%) โ Green-progressive, leads on climate motions
- The Left (GUE/NGL) โ 46 seats (6.4%) โ Left-wing, social justice focus
- ESN (Europe of Sovereign Nations) โ 25 seats (3.5%) โ Sovereignist right
- NI (Non-Inscrits) โ 31 seats (4.3%) โ Unaffiliated members
The fragmentation index of 6.14 (effective number of parties) means coalition-building is more complex than at any previous point. Majority threshold: 361 of 720 seats. No two groups can form a majority โ at minimum three groups must cooperate on any binding resolution.
Strategic Context
EP10 operates in a fundamentally different political environment than its predecessors. The Lisbon Treaty structurally expanded Parliament's legislative co-decision power from 2009 onwards, and EP10 is the first term where the full implications of a post-grand-coalition Parliament are being tested. The data is clear: legislative productivity has remained resilient (EP9 peaked at 148 acts in 2023), but the political cost of assembling majorities has risen significantly.
Committee meetings have increased 30% from EP6 to EP9, reaching 1,680 in 2025, reflecting the growing complexity of multi-stakeholder legislative negotiations. The 2026 projections of 1,720 committee meetings suggest this trend will continue. Motions that once moved efficiently through committee to plenary now require more extensive preparatory negotiation.
The correlation between roll-call votes and legislative output remains strong (r=0.94 across the 2004โ2025 dataset), indicating that parliamentary discipline mechanisms continue to function effectively even as political fragmentation increases. Speech counts, which track legislative intensity, are projected at 9,400 for 2026 โ a modest increase that reflects the growing volume and complexity of the legislative pipeline.
What Happens Next
The spring 2026 plenary cycle will be dominated by several high-stakes motion categories. Defence procurement harmonisation resolutions are expected to reach plenary by April, requiring a broad EPP-S&D-Renew-ECR coalition. The second reading of migration implementation motions will test whether the fragile cross-party compromise from 2024 can hold. Digital economy motions โ including AI Act enforcement frameworks โ will continue their steady progression through committee.
Based on historical parliamentary term patterns, EP10 is entering its peak legislative productivity phase. Data from EP6 through EP9 shows that years 2โ3 of each term consistently produce the highest legislative output, suggesting 2026 will see significant motion activity. The predicted 85 legislative acts and 120 resolutions would place 2026 solidly within historical norms for a second-year term.
Key dates to watch: the March plenary session in Strasbourg and the April session in Brussels will be critical for the defence and migration agenda. Committee draft motions on industrial strategy are expected to be tabled by May. The resolution pipeline remains robust โ the question is whether EP10's fragmented political landscape can convert committee-stage motions into adopted plenary texts at rates comparable to previous terms.