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// SPDX-License-Identifier: Apache-2.0
/**
* @module Utils/IMFData
* @description Utility functions for IMF economic data integration.
*
* Provides EU member state → IMF country code mapping (mostly the same
* ISO-3166-1 alpha-3 codes as the World Bank, with a few diffs flagged
* in `IMF_COUNTRY_CODE_OVERRIDES`), SDMX-JSON response parsing,
* indicator formatting with forecast awareness, and the
* `IMFEconomicContext` builder for EU Parliament article enrichment.
*
* Functions in this module are designed to be stateless and avoid
* observable side effects, matching the pattern established by
* `world-bank-data.ts`. A raw IMF SDMX response may include attribute
* flags (`OBS_STATUS=F` for forecast), multi-dimensional keyed
* observations, and partial data — see {@link parseSDMXJSON} for the
* normalisation rules.
*
* ## ⚠️ For AI Agents / Agentic Workflows
*
* The constants below ({@link IMF_POLICY_INDICATORS}, {@link IMF_EU_COUNTRY_CODES})
* are a **convenience subset** used by TypeScript code for formatting
* and parsing. They do **NOT** represent the full IMF database
* inventory. For indicator selection in articles and analysis:
*
* 1. Read `analysis/methodologies/imf-indicator-mapping.md` — canonical
* committee → IMF indicator mapping enforced by the validator.
* 2. Read `analysis/imf/indicator-catalog.md` — IMF WEO/IFS/FM/BOP/ER
* indicators by EP policy domain.
* 3. Use `imf-search-databases` / `imf-get-parameter-codes` to discover
* additional series on demand.
*/
import type {
IMFDatabaseId,
IMFEconomicContext,
IMFEconomicIndicatorSummary,
IMFForecastPoint,
IMFFrequency,
IMFMacroIndicatorKey,
IMFObservation,
IMFPolicyIndicatorMapping,
IMFSeries,
} from '../types/imf.js';
import { escapeHTML } from './file-utils.js';
// ─── EU Member State → IMF Country Code Mapping ───────────────────────────────
/**
* Maps EU member state ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 codes to IMF country codes.
*
* The IMF SDMX 3.0 API uses ISO-3166-1 alpha-3 codes for every EU
* member state, which matches the World Bank code set exactly. This
* constant is kept as a standalone copy (rather than re-exporting
* `EU_COUNTRY_CODES` from `world-bank-data.ts`) so the IMF module
* remains self-contained and so future IMF-specific overrides
* (e.g. Kosovo = `UVK` at IMF vs. `XKX` at WB) can land without
* disturbing the World Bank map.
*/
export const IMF_EU_COUNTRY_CODES: Readonly<Record<string, string>> = {
AT: 'AUT',
BE: 'BEL',
BG: 'BGR',
HR: 'HRV',
CY: 'CYP',
CZ: 'CZE',
DK: 'DNK',
EE: 'EST',
FI: 'FIN',
FR: 'FRA',
DE: 'DEU',
GR: 'GRC',
HU: 'HUN',
IE: 'IRL',
IT: 'ITA',
LV: 'LVA',
LT: 'LTU',
LU: 'LUX',
MT: 'MLT',
NL: 'NLD',
PL: 'POL',
PT: 'PRT',
RO: 'ROU',
SK: 'SVK',
SI: 'SVN',
ES: 'ESP',
SE: 'SWE',
} as const;
/**
* IMF-specific country-code overrides — cases where the IMF's codelist
* differs from the World Bank's. Keep this documented explicitly so
* the drift surface stays visible in one place.
*/
export const IMF_COUNTRY_CODE_OVERRIDES: Readonly<Record<string, string>> = {
// Kosovo: WB uses XKX, IMF uses UVK on some datasets; add more entries here as drift is discovered.
XK: 'UVK',
} as const;
/** IMF aggregate code for the Euro Area (most widely used EU aggregation on WEO). */
export const IMF_EURO_AREA_CODE = 'EA19'; // Historical; `EA` covers the current membership.
/**
* IMF aggregate labels used in EU Parliament article headings.
*/
export const IMF_AGGREGATE_LABELS: Readonly<Record<string, string>> = {
EU: 'European Union',
EA: 'Euro Area',
EA19: 'Euro Area (19 members)',
OECD: 'OECD members',
WLD: 'World',
G7: 'G7',
G20: 'G20',
} as const;
/**
* Curated IMF indicator mapping — policy-relevant macro/fiscal/trade
* series that the EU Parliament Monitor uses across article types.
*
* Keyed by the stable {@link IMFMacroIndicatorKey} so prompts and
* templates reference semantic names ("gdpGrowth", "govDebt") rather
* than raw SDMX codes. When an indicator has forecasts in WEO/FM,
* `hasForecast` is `true` and the default query horizon should extend
* to at least `currentYear + 5`.
*/
export const IMF_POLICY_INDICATORS: Readonly<
Record<IMFMacroIndicatorKey, IMFPolicyIndicatorMapping>
> = {
gdp: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'NGDPD',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'GDP (current USD)',
hasForecast: true,
},
gdpGrowth: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'NGDP_RPCH',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Real GDP growth',
hasForecast: true,
},
gdpPerCapita: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'NGDPDPC',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'GDP per capita (current USD)',
hasForecast: true,
},
inflation: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'PCPIPCH',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Consumer price inflation',
hasForecast: true,
},
unemployment: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'LUR',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Unemployment rate',
hasForecast: true,
},
population: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'LP',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Population (millions)',
hasForecast: true,
},
currentAccount: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'BCA_NGDPD',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Current account balance (% of GDP)',
hasForecast: true,
},
exportsGdp: {
database: 'WEO',
indicator: 'TX_RPCH',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Export volume growth',
hasForecast: true,
},
govDebt: {
database: 'FM',
indicator: 'GGXWDG_NGDP',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'General government gross debt (% of GDP)',
hasForecast: true,
},
primaryBalance: {
database: 'FM',
indicator: 'GGXONLB_NGDP',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Primary balance (% of GDP)',
hasForecast: true,
},
structuralBalance: {
database: 'FM',
indicator: 'GGSB_NPGDP',
frequency: 'A',
label: 'Structural balance (% of potential GDP)',
hasForecast: true,
},
fdiInflow: {
database: 'BOP_AGG',
indicator: 'BFD_BP6_USD',
frequency: 'Q',
label: 'FDI inflow (BoP, current USD)',
hasForecast: false,
},
realEffectiveExchangeRate: {
database: 'ER',
indicator: 'EREER_IX',
frequency: 'M',
label: 'Real effective exchange rate',
hasForecast: false,
},
policyRate: {
database: 'IFS',
indicator: 'FPOLM_PA',
frequency: 'M',
label: 'Monetary policy rate',
hasForecast: false,
},
};
/**
* Short indicator codes — the single source of truth for the content
* validator's IMF fingerprints list. Derived from the SDMX codes in
* {@link IMF_POLICY_INDICATORS}. Consumers should prefer this constant
* over hand-rolled string lists so validator drift is impossible.
*/
export const IMF_INDICATOR_SDMX_CODES: readonly string[] = Array.from(
new Set(Object.values(IMF_POLICY_INDICATORS).map((m) => m.indicator))
);
// ─── Country Code Lookup ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
/**
* Resolve an ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 code to the IMF country code.
*
* Applies {@link IMF_COUNTRY_CODE_OVERRIDES} first so IMF-specific
* overrides win, then falls back to the EU alpha-3 map, then returns
* `null` when the code is not recognised.
*
* @param iso2Code - Country ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 code (case-insensitive).
* @returns IMF country code or `null`.
*/
export function getIMFCountryCode(iso2Code: string): string | null {
if (!iso2Code) return null;
const upper = iso2Code.toUpperCase();
const override = IMF_COUNTRY_CODE_OVERRIDES[upper];
Iif (override) return override;
return IMF_EU_COUNTRY_CODES[upper] ?? null;
}
/**
* Check whether `iso2Code` is one of the 27 EU member states covered
* by the IMF codelist.
*
* @param iso2Code - Country ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 code.
* @returns `true` when the code maps to an EU member state.
*/
export function isIMFEUMemberState(iso2Code: string): boolean {
if (!iso2Code) return false;
return iso2Code.toUpperCase() in IMF_EU_COUNTRY_CODES;
}
// ─── SDMX-JSON Parser ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
/**
* Narrowed shape of an SDMX-JSON 2.0 / 3.0 data response. The IMF API
* returns `dataSets[0].series` keyed by concatenated dimension indices
* with an `observations` map. We only consume the fields we need so
* new SDMX attributes (reserved by future IMF releases) are ignored
* silently rather than raising parse errors.
*/
interface SDMXJSONResponse {
data?: {
dataSets?: Array<{
series?: Record<string, { observations?: Record<string, Array<number | string | null>> }>;
}>;
structure?: {
dimensions?: {
series?: Array<{
id: string;
values?: Array<{ id: string; name?: string }>;
}>;
observation?: Array<{
id: string;
values?: Array<{ id: string; name?: string }>;
}>;
};
attributes?: {
observation?: Array<{
id: string;
values?: Array<{ id: string; name?: string }>;
}>;
};
};
};
}
/**
* Return `true` when the raw SDMX observation attributes flag the
* observation as a forecast (`OBS_STATUS=F`) — the IMF convention.
* Tolerates missing/partial attribute arrays so malformed responses
* simply default to `isForecast=false`.
*
* @param obsAttributes - Attribute values for the observation (the
* slice after the observation value in the SDMX `observations` array).
* @param obsStatusAttributeIndex - Position of `OBS_STATUS` in the
* observation-attribute structure (or `-1` when absent).
* @param forecastCodeIndex - Position of the `F` code in the
* `OBS_STATUS` code list (or `-1` when absent).
* @returns `true` when the observation is flagged as a forecast.
* @internal
*/
function observationIsForecast(
obsAttributes: ReadonlyArray<number | string | null> | undefined,
obsStatusAttributeIndex: number,
forecastCodeIndex: number
): boolean {
Iif (!obsAttributes) return false;
if (obsStatusAttributeIndex < 0) return false;
const flag = obsAttributes[obsStatusAttributeIndex];
if (flag === null || flag === undefined) return false;
// The IMF SDMX response encodes attribute values either as the code
// index (numeric) or the literal code string. `F` → forecast.
if (typeof flag === 'number') {
return flag === forecastCodeIndex;
}
return String(flag).toUpperCase() === 'F';
}
/**
* Deserialise a raw SDMX payload (string or already-parsed object)
* into a typed {@link SDMXJSONResponse}. Returns `null` when the
* payload is missing, empty, or not valid JSON.
*
* @param raw - Raw payload.
* @returns Parsed object or `null`.
* @internal
*/
function deserialiseSDMXPayload(
raw: string | SDMXJSONResponse | null | undefined
): SDMXJSONResponse | null {
if (!raw) return null;
if (typeof raw === 'string') {
try {
return JSON.parse(raw) as SDMXJSONResponse;
} catch {
return null;
}
}
return raw;
}
/**
* Context extracted once per response: the time-label map and the
* precomputed OBS_STATUS attribute indexes used to detect forecasts.
*
* @internal
*/
interface SDMXDecodingContext {
timeLabels: ReadonlyArray<{ id: string; name?: string }>;
obsStatusAttrIndex: number;
forecastCodeIndex: number;
}
/**
* Build the one-response decoding context: time labels and the
* OBS_STATUS attribute indexes.
*
* @param structure - `structure` block of the SDMX payload.
* @returns Decoding context used by {@link decodeObservations}.
* @internal
*/
function buildDecodingContext(
structure: NonNullable<NonNullable<SDMXJSONResponse['data']>['structure']>
): SDMXDecodingContext {
const timeDimension = structure.dimensions?.observation?.[0];
const timeLabels = timeDimension?.values ?? [];
const obsAttributes = structure.attributes?.observation ?? [];
const obsStatusAttrIndex = obsAttributes.findIndex((a) => a.id === 'OBS_STATUS');
const forecastCodeIndex =
obsStatusAttrIndex >= 0
? (obsAttributes[obsStatusAttrIndex]?.values ?? []).findIndex(
(v) => v.id.toUpperCase() === 'F'
)
: -1;
return { timeLabels, obsStatusAttrIndex, forecastCodeIndex };
}
/**
* Coerce a raw SDMX observation cell to a finite number or `null`.
*
* @param rawValue - First element of the SDMX observation array.
* @returns Number or `null`.
* @internal
*/
function coerceObservationValue(rawValue: unknown): number | null {
if (rawValue === null || rawValue === undefined || rawValue === '') return null;
const n = typeof rawValue === 'number' ? rawValue : Number(rawValue);
return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : null;
}
/**
* Decode every observation within a single SDMX series into the
* normalised {@link IMFObservation} shape.
*
* @param seriesObservations - `observations` map keyed by observation index.
* @param ctx - Decoding context from {@link buildDecodingContext}.
* @returns Ordered array of normalised observations.
* @internal
*/
function decodeObservations(
seriesObservations: Record<string, Array<number | string | null>>,
ctx: SDMXDecodingContext
): IMFObservation[] {
const out: IMFObservation[] = [];
for (const [obsIdx, obsArr] of Object.entries(seriesObservations)) {
const timeIdx = Number.parseInt(obsIdx, 10);
const labelEntry = Number.isFinite(timeIdx) ? ctx.timeLabels[timeIdx] : undefined;
const period = labelEntry?.id ?? String(obsIdx);
const year = parsePeriodYear(period);
Iif (year === null) continue;
const arr = Array.isArray(obsArr) ? obsArr : [];
const value = coerceObservationValue(arr[0]);
const attrs = arr.slice(1);
out.push({
period,
year,
value,
isForecast: observationIsForecast(attrs, ctx.obsStatusAttrIndex, ctx.forecastCodeIndex),
});
}
out.sort((a, b) => a.period.localeCompare(b.period));
return out;
}
/**
* Parse an SDMX-JSON response into a map of series key → ordered
* observations.
*
* This parser is intentionally tolerant: missing observations,
* attribute arrays, or structure blocks all degrade to an empty result
* rather than throwing. That lets the caller pipeline treat a broken
* response as "no data" and fall through to a World Bank fallback.
*
* @param raw - Raw SDMX-JSON payload as returned by the IMF MCP server
* (accepts string, object, null, or undefined).
* @returns Map of series key → ordered observations.
*/
export function parseSDMXJSON(
raw: string | SDMXJSONResponse | null | undefined
): Map<string, IMFObservation[]> {
const result = new Map<string, IMFObservation[]>();
const payload = deserialiseSDMXPayload(raw);
if (!payload) return result;
const dataSet = payload.data?.dataSets?.[0];
const structure = payload.data?.structure;
const series = dataSet?.series;
if (!series || !structure) return result;
const ctx = buildDecodingContext(structure);
for (const [seriesKey, seriesPayload] of Object.entries(series)) {
const obs = seriesPayload.observations ?? {};
result.set(seriesKey, decodeObservations(obs, ctx));
}
return result;
}
/**
* Extract the year component from an IMF period label. Supports
* annual (`2026`), quarterly (`2026-Q1`), and monthly (`2026-04`)
* formats. Returns `null` when the label is unparseable so callers
* can skip corrupt rows.
*
* @param period - Period label (e.g. `"2026"`, `"2026-Q1"`, `"2026-04"`).
* @returns Numeric year or `null`.
* @internal
*/
function parsePeriodYear(period: string): number | null {
Iif (!period) return null;
const match = /^(\d{4})/u.exec(period);
Iif (!match) return null;
const year = Number.parseInt(match[1] ?? '', 10);
return Number.isFinite(year) ? year : null;
}
// ─── Series / Observation Helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────
/**
* Extract the most recent observation (by year) from a series,
* preferring published actuals over forecasts when both are present
* for the same latest year.
*
* Returns `null` when the series contains only null values or is empty.
*
* @param observations - Series observations (in any order).
* @returns Most recent observation with a non-null value, or `null`.
*/
export function getMostRecentObservation(
observations: readonly IMFObservation[]
): IMFObservation | null {
if (observations.length === 0) return null;
const withValues = observations.filter((o) => o.value !== null);
if (withValues.length === 0) return null;
withValues.sort((a, b) => {
if (b.year !== a.year) return b.year - a.year;
// Prefer actual (isForecast=false) over forecast at the same year.
Eif (a.isForecast !== b.isForecast) return a.isForecast ? 1 : -1;
return b.period.localeCompare(a.period);
});
return withValues[0] ?? null;
}
/**
* Return just the forecast points from a series, oldest first.
* Useful for Chart.js dashed-line overlays.
*
* @param observations - Series observations.
* @param vintage - Optional IMF vintage label to stamp on each point.
* @returns Ordered forecast points.
*/
export function getForecastPoints(
observations: readonly IMFObservation[],
vintage?: string
): IMFForecastPoint[] {
return observations
.filter((o) => o.isForecast && o.value !== null)
.map((o) => {
const point: IMFForecastPoint = {
period: o.period,
year: o.year,
value: o.value as number,
};
if (vintage !== undefined) {
point.vintage = vintage;
}
return point;
})
.sort((a, b) => a.year - b.year);
}
// ─── Value Formatting ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
/** Magnitude threshold for trillion formatting. */
const TRILLION = 1e12;
/** Magnitude threshold for billion formatting. */
const BILLION = 1e9;
/** Magnitude threshold for million formatting. */
const MILLION = 1e6;
/**
* Format a numeric IMF value for display, based on the indicator
* mapping's label hints.
*
* Percentage-family indicators render as `X.Y %`; GDP renders with
* the T/B/M magnitude suffix; population renders in millions to
* match the WEO publication convention. Unknown indicators fall back
* to two decimal places.
*
* @param value - Numeric value, or `null` for N/A.
* @param mapping - Indicator mapping entry (from {@link IMF_POLICY_INDICATORS}).
* @returns A human-readable formatted string, or `'N/A'` for `null` / non-finite inputs.
*/
export function formatIMFValue(value: number | null, mapping: IMFPolicyIndicatorMapping): string {
if (value === null || !Number.isFinite(value)) return 'N/A';
const label = mapping.label.toLowerCase();
if (
label.includes('% of gdp') ||
label.includes('growth') ||
label.includes('inflation') ||
label.includes('unemployment')
) {
return `${value.toFixed(1)}%`;
}
if (label.includes('gdp') && !label.includes('per capita')) {
const abs = Math.abs(value);
if (abs >= TRILLION) return `$${(value / TRILLION).toFixed(1)}T`;
Eif (abs >= BILLION) return `$${(value / BILLION).toFixed(1)}B`;
if (abs >= MILLION) return `$${(value / MILLION).toFixed(1)}M`;
return `$${value.toFixed(0)}`;
}
Eif (label.includes('population')) {
return `${value.toFixed(1)}M`;
}
if (label.includes('exchange rate') || label.includes('policy rate')) {
return value.toFixed(2);
}
return value.toFixed(2);
}
// ─── Economic Context Builder ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
/**
* Build an {@link IMFEconomicContext} from an indexed series map.
*
* Each entry in `seriesByKey` should be keyed by the {@link IMFMacroIndicatorKey}
* so the builder can look up the mapping and produce a stable display row.
* Rows with no observations are skipped silently. When ANY indicator
* carries a forecast, `forecastHorizonYear` is set to the maximum
* forecast year so the caller can render a dashed overlay region
* starting from that year.
*
* @param countryCode - EU member state ISO2 code or IMF aggregate code.
* @param countryName - Country display name.
* @param seriesByKey - Map of {@link IMFMacroIndicatorKey} to series.
* @param vintage - IMF data vintage label (e.g. `WEO-April-2026`).
* @returns Populated {@link IMFEconomicContext} (may have an empty `indicators` array).
*/
export function buildIMFEconomicContext(
countryCode: string,
countryName: string,
seriesByKey: ReadonlyMap<IMFMacroIndicatorKey, IMFSeries>,
vintage?: string
): IMFEconomicContext {
const indicators: IMFEconomicIndicatorSummary[] = [];
let forecastHorizonYear: number | undefined;
for (const [key, series] of seriesByKey) {
const mapping = IMF_POLICY_INDICATORS[key];
if (!mapping) continue;
const latest = getMostRecentObservation(series.observations);
if (!latest) continue;
const row: IMFEconomicIndicatorSummary = {
name: mapping.label,
indicatorId: mapping.indicator,
database: mapping.database,
value: latest.value,
period: latest.period,
year: latest.year,
isForecast: latest.isForecast,
formatted: formatIMFValue(latest.value, mapping),
};
Eif (vintage !== undefined) {
row.vintage = vintage;
}
indicators.push(row);
const forecasts = series.observations.filter((o) => o.isForecast);
for (const f of forecasts) {
Eif (forecastHorizonYear === undefined || f.year > forecastHorizonYear) {
forecastHorizonYear = f.year;
}
}
}
const context: IMFEconomicContext = {
countryCode,
countryName,
indicators,
dataTimestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
};
if (forecastHorizonYear !== undefined) {
context.forecastHorizonYear = forecastHorizonYear;
}
return context;
}
// ─── HTML Context Section ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
/**
* Build a WCAG-compliant HTML `<section>` summarising the IMF
* economic context for a single country.
*
* Forecast rows are marked with a `data-forecast="true"` attribute on
* the `<tr>` so CSS/Chart.js can visually differentiate them from
* actuals. Source attribution cites the IMF WEO/FM vintage when
* available. Safe against XSS via `escapeHTML`.
*
* @param context - Economic context payload.
* @returns HTML string with the economic context section, or `''` when there are no indicators.
*/
export function buildIMFEconomicContextHTML(context: IMFEconomicContext): string {
if (context.indicators.length === 0) return '';
const rows = context.indicators
.map((ind) => {
const forecastAttr = ind.isForecast ? ' data-forecast="true"' : '';
const forecastLabel = ind.isForecast ? ' <span class="forecast-flag">(forecast)</span>' : '';
const vintageCell = ind.vintage ? `<td>${escapeHTML(ind.vintage)}</td>` : '<td></td>';
return `<tr${forecastAttr}><td>${escapeHTML(ind.name)}${forecastLabel}</td><td>${escapeHTML(ind.formatted)}</td><td>${escapeHTML(ind.period)}</td>${vintageCell}</tr>`;
})
.join('\n');
const horizonNote = context.forecastHorizonYear
? ` <span class="forecast-horizon">Projections extend through ${escapeHTML(String(context.forecastHorizonYear))}.</span>`
: '';
return `<section class="economic-context imf-economic-context" aria-label="IMF economic indicators for ${escapeHTML(context.countryName)}">
<h2>Economic Context (IMF): ${escapeHTML(context.countryName)}</h2>
<table>
<caption>IMF economic indicators for ${escapeHTML(context.countryName)}.${horizonNote}</caption>
<thead><tr><th scope="col">Indicator</th><th scope="col">Value</th><th scope="col">Period</th><th scope="col">Vintage</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
${rows}
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="data-source">Source: IMF (<a href="https://data.imf.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">data.imf.org</a>)</p>
</section>`;
}
// ─── Type Re-Exports (convenience) ────────────────────────────────────────────
export type {
IMFDatabaseId,
IMFEconomicContext,
IMFEconomicIndicatorSummary,
IMFForecastPoint,
IMFFrequency,
IMFMacroIndicatorKey,
IMFObservation,
IMFPolicyIndicatorMapping,
IMFSeries,
};
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